I admit that it’s always ill-advised to use the word “never” when you prognosticate the outcome of a future event. The vagaries of life can throw a wrench to the works of the most auspicious auguries. I know that nevertheless, I am prepared to go out on a limb and proclaim that in spite of his feverishly desperate, frenzied, backstabbing machinations, Bola Ahmed Tinubu can never be Nigeria’s president.Here’s some reasons.
Tinubu isn’t electable in any region of Nigeria outside the Southwest, his natal region. Even in the Southwest, his political capital has suffered incalculable diminution over the years, particularly because of the growing perception in the region that he is now a mindless minion of a morally maggoty, Machiavellian and no-good northern cabal.
His callous, injudicious, not to mention misguided and evidence-free, exculpation of the alleged murderers of the daughter of Afenifere leader Reuben Fasoranti rankled many people in the region and helped seal the notion that he is now no more than a fawning, unthinking automaton for hostile political forces outside his region. It is entirely possible that Fasoranti’s daughter wasn’t murdered by Fulani herders, but saying so without firm, foolproof evidence—and when raw passions were still inflamed—betrayed his lack of scruples and independence of thought.
That is why an increasing number of people in the Southwest now see Tinubu as an unreliable, out-of-touch, self-absorbed, power-hungry, and treacherous narcissist. Among the electorate in the Southeast and the South-south, he is seen as one of the principal architects in the emergence of the unrelieved disaster that is Buhari whose regime has taken the humiliation and alienation of the two regions as an article of statecraft.
Tinubu also infamously sanctioned the systematic, state-sponsored, and thugs-executed disenfranchisement of Igbo voters in Lagos in 2019. His wife, Remi Tinubu, was, allegedly caught on camera lamenting that the Igbo are untrustworthy. (Her exact words were, “Igbo, we no dey trust una again!”) “Most Igbos and Southern ethnic minorities would rather be dead than vote for Tinubu.”
Christian ethnic minorities in the North, for whom religious identity is an important instrument of political mobilisation, deeply distrust, even resent, Tinubu and his politics. Although Northern Nigerian christians tend to be largely indifferent to Southern (that is, Yoruba and Edo) Muslims, they nonetheless nurse deep-seated animus toward Tinubu because of the roles he is perceived to have played in propping up the fiendish monster of depravity that the Buhari regime has become.
You would think the Muslim North, particularly the Hausaphone Muslim North, would requite Tinubu’s support for Buhari in 2015 and 2019 by supporting his presidential aspiration in 2023. That is precisely what Tinubu himself, in his blissful naivety expects. Well, as I pointed out many times before the 2019 election, this is where Tinubu will get the biggest shock of his life. If Tinubu were lucky to clinch the nomination of the APC (as unlikely as this is), he would need to nominate a christian, preferably a Northern christian, politician to “balance” his ticket since he is a Muslim—or self-identifies as a Muslim—from the South. And that’s where the problem would start for him. In the North, there is an enduring distrust of the authenticity of the Islam of Yoruba Muslims.
There is even a Hausa phrase that encapsulates this distrust: adininYarbawa. It literally translates as the religion, i.e., Islam of the Yoruba. But it means more than that.
It is often uttered to suggest that the Islam of Yoruba people is fickle, inauthentic, meretricious, syncretic, and untrustworthy.So, as far as most Northern Muslims are concerned, a Yoruba Muslim/Northern Christian ticket is as good as a Christian/Christian ticket. Well, some Yoruba Muslims have been able to overcome this visceral Northern Muslim perceptual bias against their Islam. A good example is the late MKO Abiola. And it was because he did more for the cause of Islam than any Nigerian of his time. You can’t say that of Tinubu who, apart from the rampant northern Muslim perception that he isn’t a practising Muslim. Even Abiola had to choose a Northern Muslim running mate to earn the trust of the Northern Muslim political elite. Nonetheless, if Tinubu chooses a running mate from the Muslim North to compensate for his lack of sufficient Muslim bonafides, he would alienate Igbo, Southern ethnic minority, and Northern Christian voters, the very people who distrust and resent him in the first place.
Contemporary Nigeria is way more sensitive to the politics of religious representation than 1990s Nigeria was when Abiola ran for president. The rise of politically tinged Pentecostalism in the South has made even the religiously liberal Southwest a hotbed for religious particularism, even though ethnic solidarity is still a more potent instrument for mobilisation in the region than religion. But I wager that Northern Muslim voters would rather vote for a party that fields a Northern Muslim candidate—even if that party is the PDP—than vote for Tinubu even if he chooses a Northern Muslim running mate. So, heads or tails, Tinubu will lose.
Nevertheless, the most important reason Tinubu can never be present is that the people who currently wield political power, to whom he is a witlessly obsequious bootlicker, won’t hand over power to him—or to anybody—in 2023.
Members of the cold, calculating, and conniving Buhari cabal have chosen Babagana Kingibe as Buhari’s successor.
As I pointed out in previous columns and social media updates, in the privacy of their conclaves, members of the cabal snigger at Tinubu for naively imagining that Buhari will hand over power to him. In the service of this self-delusion, he is bending over backwards, including throwing his loyal lieutenants under the bus, for the cabal in the presidency. But all this will come to naught, before the 2019 election, a friend of mine who is close to Abba Kyari confided in me that after the election they would “deal with Tinubu and his people.” He bragged that by the time they are done with him and his underlings, he would be so damaged that he won’t even be an option for the 2023 presidency.It’s already starting. Of course, the cabal isn’t banking on any legitimate election to get Kingibe into power; INEC, which is now in their begrimed pockets, will just pluck imaginary figures from the air, ignore actual votes, and declare him “winner”—like it did Buhari this year and the Presidential Election, Petitions Tribunal and the Supreme Courtwill uphold the travesty.
However, I predict that should Buhari survive until 2023, he won’t hand over power to anyone, including Kingibe, Tinubu has contributed to killing the culture of civil disobedience because of his inordinate, unrealisable political ambition. When the cabal finally comes for his neck, there will be no pan-Nigerian coalition to save him.
By Farooq Kperogi.
Forget all does big grammars, grammars no fit help nor change our life ooooO… All I see, hear and read about are “old fools” who are just power driven, power drunk, power intoxicated falling upon themselves just to lay hands or stay in power at all cost without minding the effects it has on supposed governed (people). From all the happenings in Nigeria, what they’re after is power, what will you now do when you eventually lay hold of the supposed power? How do you expect does power crazy bastards to know. Just like the case of a groom who uses all his life resources, energy, time, strength, mischievous ability to have a successful, glamorous “wedding ceremony” which is for just a day but never had the idea or what the “meaning of marriage” means or all about!!! Doom’s day is only put on hold or waiting to erupt any moment, which nobody cares to avert it!!!
I’ve said it and will keep saying, until we the youths stop ourselves from been a puppets in the hands of this good for nothing, self centred creatures that called themselves leaders who can’t lead shit nor do they even know what it means to be a leader, we will not move an inch. Obviously theirs poverty in the land, hunger is on rampage and spreading like wild fires, it’s not the little peanuts they give or will give us before, during after various elections that we’ve being obviously surviving on all this while, obviously the peanuts can’t even last that same day we were given, so why are we living our lives or do like our survival is on that little handouts given. Let’s tell them we’ve had enough by our actions and not by words, don’t let them know we’ve broken ourselves from the shackles of mental slavery. Collect the stupid money which if we want to look at it critically or technically (which is our money) and do the right thing.
The murderers of the daughter of Afenifere leader Reuben Fasoranti, allegedly killed by herdsmen, the Rev. Father allegedly killed at Enugu State too, what has being done to it? Has the perpetrators brought to book yet? Absolutely no, LAST-LAST NA ME AND YOU PLUS OUR FAMILIES TOO GO DEY DIE AND NOTHING GO HAPPEN!!! Is either we stop this nonsense or we keep enduring, remember if you plan to fly outside the shore of Nigeria, you be treated like shit, remember xenophobia at South Africa? This one is even in same continent, same black nation, we’ve already been called sh.thole nations sometimes ago.
“Out-of-touch, self-absorbed, power-hungry, and treacherous narcissist politicians is what we have everywhere. It is often uttered to suggest that the Islam of Yoruba people is fickle, inauthentic, meretricious, syncretic, and untrustworthy. So, as far as most Northern Muslims are concerned, a Yoruba Muslim/Northern Christian ticket is as good as a Christian/Christian ticket.” do you hear the permutations of power hungry, empty skull fools who have nothing to deliver? Only if they can permutate, strategise to serve the way does nonsense do to win elections, Nigeria will have changed for better.
Let’s fix it!!! Let’s make it work!!! I’ve done (say) what my little strength can do, ain’t you gonna do yours? Remember 1+1=2+ your own 1, + another 1… we can go on and on, your widow’s might is needed, bring it to the table!!!